Sulfur and sulfuric acid are igniting a cost storm, and compound fertilizer enterprises have reached a critical point where they "can't bear it" anymore!

From March to early April, sulfur prices experienced an "epic" surge. Currently, although prices have fallen from their previous highs, they are still firmly positioned in the historical high-price range.
The surge in upstream sulfur prices ignited the downstream sulfuric acid market this month. From April 11th to 16th, sulfuric acid prices stood at a high of 2,100 yuan/ton. The soaring prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid are profoundly affecting the compound fertilizer market from the cost side. The rigid increase in upstream prices has ignited a chain reaction of "sulfuric acid - phosphate fertilizer - compound fertilizer"

According to the market price changes of important means of production in the circulation sector in early April 2026 released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of early April, the price of sulfuric acid in the circulation sector has increased by 838.8 yuan/ton. According to the benchmark price data from the China Business Society, the price of sulfuric acid in the circulation sector in the first quarter of 2026 (unit: yuan/ton) (data source: National Bureau of Statistics) experienced a rapid surge in the first half of April: the benchmark price on April 1 was 1,580 yuan/ton, on April 3 it was 1,800 yuan/ton, from April 14 to 16 it was 2,100 yuan/ton, and on April 17 it was 2,075 yuan/ton.
The rise in sulfur prices has directly driven up the cost of sulfuric acid, and this pressure has ultimately been fully transmitted to compound fertilizers.

According to Longzhong Information, the cost of balanced sulfur-based and chlorine-based compound fertilizers in 2026 shows a rigid and firm trend. Due to the high concentration of resources and the continuous tightening of supply, the price of phosphorus-based raw materials is expected to continue to rise in the later period. However, the profit margins of compound fertilizer enterprises are already slim, and it is difficult to continue to rely solely on their own "hard-bearing" in the face of cost increases of hundreds of yuan. Previously, some enterprises have suffered losses due to price inversion, indicating that the cost pressure has reached a critical point where it must be transmitted downstream. With the continuous rise in rigid costs, the price increase of compound fertilizers is inevitable - this judgment has become an industry consensus as early as the beginning of the year. The downstream is difficult to follow, and enterprises are under pressure from both ends
However, costs are high and transmission is blocked. The significant price increase has led the market into a stalemate situation of "upward hard rise and downward difficulty to follow". Compound fertilizer enterprises are under dual pressure from both upstream and downstream. In sharp contrast to the high cost of upstream raw materials, the cost pressure of compound fertilizer cannot be transmitted downstream.

In the first quarter of 2026, the price of compound fertilizer (potassium sulfate type with 45% nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium content) in the circulation field of China (unit: yuan/ton) (data source: National Bureau of Statistics) On the one hand, the preparation of fertilizer for spring plowing has basically ended, and corn fertilizer has just started, resulting in a weakening of the rigid demand for compound fertilizer. Some enterprises have begun to use price guarantee policies to lock in users. On the other hand, due to expectations of price increases, many dealers have prepared sufficient stock early. Or they have made advance payments to lock in. Some dealers are also hoarding in small quantities and will release as needed. Channel merchants mainly focus on digesting existing inventory. Some dealers indicate that they still have inventory, which is suitable for garlic fertilization but not yet for corn fertilization. At the same time, dealers are also resisting because they cannot increase prices for users. Crops are not increasing, but planting inputs are growing. How to break this deadlock? Some dealers also report that large enterprises currently have sufficient supply, while some small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped shipping. In this cost storm triggered by sulfur, the industry as a whole is under pressure and has not yet found a permanent solution. Enterprises with phosphate mines and abundant resources still have flexibility, being able to switch between three methods: "own pyrite mine acid production", "sulfur acid production", and "outsourced sulfuric acid". Most manufacturers can only bear the pressure. However, this pressure can only be short-term. The corn fertilization season is approaching, and if raw material costs continue to rise, under the pressure of the overall environment, all enterprises may have to follow the market trend.