After sulfur restrictions are imposed, can Indonesia import sulfuric acid as a substitute? [Part 2]

IV. Other Asia-Pacific sources: each has its own shortcomings
South Korea and Japan were once important sources of supply for Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia imported 172,000 tons and 106,000 tons from South Korea and Japan respectively, but the year-on-year decrease was significant at 40% and 65%, primarily due to the decline in TC/RC prices, which squeezed smelters' profits and reduced operating rates. In the first quarter of 2025, South Korea exported approximately 583,400 tons of sulfuric acid, a decrease of 5% year-on-year. The main export destinations were Chile, India, Thailand, and Indonesia, and the supply was not exclusively for Indonesia. Japan's supply scale is smaller, and its export flexibility is limited. The combined export volume of South Korea and Japan to Indonesia is approximately 200,000 to 300,000 tons per year, with extremely limited potential for growth.     
In India, several sulfuric acid plants are undergoing expansion, but the increase in production is primarily intended to meet the demand of its own fertilizer industry and reduce dependence on imports. India is the third largest importer of sulfuric acid globally, with annual imports of approximately 2 million tons. Export strategy is not a priority for India. The increase in exports to Indonesia is expected to be no more than 50,000 to 100,000 tons per year.     
In terms of Taiwan and the Philippines, their combined exports to Indonesia amount to less than 50,000 tons per year. Taiwan's sulfuric acid is primarily of electronic grade, serving the semiconductor industry, and is not exported on a large scale as metallurgical grade sulfuric acid. Other sources (such as South Africa and the Middle East) face issues such as long transportation distances or limited production capacity, making their actual contributions negligible.  
V. Quantification of supply and demand gap and comprehensive conclusion
Quantitative calculation. In 2025, the total import volume of sulfuric acid in Indonesia is approximately 1.08 million tons. Among this, the actual consumption of sulfuric acid imported by the MHP industry is about 220,000 tons, of which approximately 180,000 tons are sourced from China.     
Based on historical highs, the combined upper limit of substitutable sources is approximately 400,000 to 600,000 tons per year (200,000 to 300,000 tons from Japan and South Korea, 50,000 to 100,000 tons from India, 30,000 to 50,000 tons from Taiwan and the Philippines, and approximately 100,000 to 200,000 tons from Australia after deducting production halts from theoretical potential). However, due to shrinking production capacity, prioritizing domestic demand, or differences in export positioning, the actual substitutable amount from most sources is only 50% to 70% of the upper limit, approximately 200,000 to 400,000 tons per year. This barely approaches the 300,000-ton gap but cannot achieve stable substitution.     
The core constraint lies in the fact that global sulfuric acid primarily originates from by-products of non-ferrous metal smelting, and its production growth is constrained by the expansion of non-ferrous metal production capacity. The significant shutdown of smelting plants in Australia, coupled with low operating rates in Japan and South Korea, reflects the structural characteristic of "sulfuric acid being dependent on the main smelting industry". Although sea transportation is feasible, the globally adjustable "surplus" sulfuric acid is very limited.  
conclusion
After China officially suspended sulfuric acid exports, Indonesia could technically import sulfuric acid from Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, and other countries. However, it is difficult for alternative global sources to stably fill the gap in the long term. Importing sulfuric acid can serve as a short-term buffer, but it cannot fundamentally solve the problem of sulfur supply constraints. A more feasible long-term solution remains: diversifying sulfur import sources, accelerating the construction of copper mine smelting by-product sulfuric acid projects in Indonesia, and promoting the optimization of sulfur recovery processes.