After sulfur restrictions are imposed, can Indonesia import sulfuric acid as a substitute? [Part 1]

Since 2026, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have severely hindered Indonesia's sulfur imports. The price of sulfur (CIF Indonesia) has soared from 563 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to the current quotation of 1175 yuan/ton, an increase of over 108%. Sulfur is a core auxiliary material for the production of MHP in Indonesia's nickel hydrometallurgy (HPAL) process, with a unit consumption of 10-12 tons per ton of nickel. Against this backdrop, directly importing sulfuric acid to replace the acid production process has become a practical consideration for Indonesian nickel enterprises.
1. China's export ban: Cutting off the largest supply source
China is the world's largest exporter of sulfuric acid. In 2025, China exported approximately 4.649 million tons of sulfuric acid, and Indonesia sourced about 62% of its imported sulfuric acid from China. In 2025, China's exports of sulfuric acid to Indonesia reached 670,000 tons, more than doubling compared to 2024. Meanwhile, Indonesia's imports from South Korea and Japan decreased significantly by 40% and 65%, respectively. China effectively filled the gap, consolidating its position as the largest supplier.     
From January to March 2026 (before the ban), China's total sulfuric acid exports amounted to 528,000 tons, marking a sharp year-on-year decline of 49.8%. Exports to Indonesia were only 103,000 tons, a significant decrease of about 76% compared to the same period last year. The ban had already begun to take effect through the tightening of quotas. From May 1st to December 31st, the export of ordinary industrial sulfuric acid and by-product sulfuric acid from smelting was completely suspended, with only a small amount of electronic-grade high-purity sulfuric acid being exported after special approval. The core of the policy is to "ensure spring plowing and stabilize supply", prioritizing the domestic fertilizer industry.  
II. Transportation and storage: significant differences in sea and land conditions

Shipping time and cost-effectiveness. Shipping time from major sources to Indonesia: approximately 5 days from Australia, 7-8 days from India, 9 days from Japan and South Korea, and 10 days from China. Australia has a shorter distance and less quality loss during transit. There is little difference in price. According to customs data from 2025, the CIF price from China to Indonesia is approximately $103/ton, while that from Australia is approximately $106/ton.     
The fundamental constraint of transportation radius lies in land transportation. On the one hand, sulfuric acid has a strong water absorption capacity, and even if stored in sealed tanks, prolonged transportation will still lead to a decrease in concentration. On the other hand, land transportation has a small unit volume, making long-distance transportation uneconomical. Therefore, ports prohibit large-scale storage of sulfuric acid tanks, and sulfuric acid must be consumed quickly upon arrival at the port. Enterprises must configure their own acid storage tanks for buffering.     
In terms of enterprise support, the investment in acid storage tanks and the coordination with port scheduling are the actual bottlenecks for importing sulfuric acid. Furthermore, Indonesia has a longstanding history of license management for sulfuric acid imports - it was included in the management of hazardous chemicals in 2001, became stricter in 2013, and further tightened with supplementary regulations introduced in 2025. The licensing threshold itself has already suppressed sulfuric acid imports to some extent.
III. Australia: Shortest shipping radius but extremely limited supply
Australia boasts superior comprehensive conditions: sea transportation takes only about 5 days, and the CIF price is basically on par with China. Sun Metals has built specialized export storage tanks and ship loading facilities at the Townsville Port. On the surface, it appears to be the most ideal alternative source.     
However, Australia's actual sulfuric acid supply capacity is severely limited. According to SMM research, the total domestic sulfuric acid production capacity in Australia is approximately 2.9 million tons per year, mainly from the following sources: BHP Kalgoorlie nickel smelter (approximately 300,000 tons per year), Olympic Dam copper smelter (approximately 500,000 tons per year), Sun Metals zinc smelter (approximately 400,000 tons per year), Nyrstar Hobart zinc smelter and Port Pirie lead smelter combined (approximately 500,000 tons per year), Glencore Mount Isa copper smelter's Incitec Pivot sulfuric acid plant (800,000 tons per year), as well as approximately 400,000 tons per year of sulfur combustion capacity.     
Crucially, the aforementioned production capacity is experiencing significant contraction: the Mount Isa copper mine has been shut down, smelters and refineries are surviving in the short term with government assistance, and the BHP Kalgoorlie nickel smelter has been suspended since October 2024.     
Meanwhile, according to USGS data, Australia's annual sulfur production stands at 1 million tons, necessitating significant imports of sulfur to sustain sulfuric acid production, which itself is influenced by the situation in the Middle East. According to WITS data, in 2024, Australia exported a total of 17,800 tons of sulfuric acid but imported 87,800 tons of sulfuric acid and 542,000 tons of sulfur. Under the dual constraints of shrinking smelting capacity and insufficient self-supply of sulfur, the actual amount of sulfuric acid available for export to Indonesia is extremely limited, insufficient to compensate for the gap caused by China's ban.  
IV. Other Asia-Pacific sources: each has its own shortcomings
South Korea and Japan were once important sources of supply for Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia imported 172,000 tons and 106,000 tons from South Korea and Japan respectively, but the year-on-year decrease was sharp, by 40% and 65%, mainly due to the decline in TC/RC prices, which squeezed smelters' profits and reduced operating rates. In the first quarter of 2025, South Korea's total sulfuric acid exports amounted to approximately 583,400 tons, down 5% year-on-year. The main export destinations were Chile, India, Thailand, and Indonesia, and the sulfuric acid was not exclusively exported to Indonesia. Japan's supply scale is smaller, and its export flexibility is limited. The combined exports from Japan and South Korea to Indonesia amount to approximately 200,000 to 300,000 tons per year, with extremely limited potential for growth.     
In India, several sulfuric acid plants are undergoing expansion, but the increase in production is primarily intended to meet the needs of its own fertilizer industry and reduce dependence on imports. India is the third largest importer of sulfuric acid globally, with annual imports of approximately 2 million tons. Export strategy is not a priority for India. The increase in exports to Indonesia is expected to be no more than 50,000 to 100,000 tons per year.     
In terms of Taiwan and the Philippines, their combined exports to Indonesia amount to less than 50,000 tons per year. Taiwan's sulfuric acid is primarily of electronic grade, serving the semiconductor industry, and is not exported on a large scale as metallurgical grade sulfuric acid. Other sources (such as South Africa and the Middle East) face issues such as long transportation distances or limited production capacity, making their actual contributions negligible.  
V. Quantification of supply-demand gap and comprehensive conclusion
Quantitative calculation. In 2025, the total import volume of sulfuric acid in Indonesia is approximately 1.08 million tons. Among this, the actual consumption of sulfuric acid imported by the MHP industry is about 220,000 tons, of which approximately 180,000 tons come from China.     
Based on historical highs, the combined upper limit of substitutable sources is approximately 400,000 to 600,000 tons per year (200,000 to 300,000 tons from Japan and South Korea, 50,000 to 100,000 tons from India, 30,000 to 50,000 tons from Taiwan and the Philippines, and approximately 100,000 to 200,000 tons from Australia after deducting production halts from theoretical potential). However, due to shrinking production capacity, prioritizing domestic demand, or differences in export positioning, the actual substitutable amount from most sources is only 50% to 70% of the upper limit, approximately 200,000 to 400,000 tons per year. This barely approaches the 300,000-ton gap but cannot achieve stable substitution.     
The core constraint lies in the fact that global sulfuric acid primarily originates from by-products of non-ferrous metal smelting, and its production growth is constrained by the expansion of non-ferrous metal production capacity. The significant shutdown of smelters in Australia, coupled with low operating rates in Japan and South Korea, reflects the structural characteristic of "sulfuric acid being dependent on the main smelting industry." Although sea transportation is feasible, the globally adjustable "surplus" sulfuric acid is very limited.  
conclusion
After China officially suspended sulfuric acid exports, Indonesia can technically import sulfuric acid from Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, and other countries, but it is difficult for alternative global sources to fill the gap stably in the long term. Importing sulfuric acid can serve as a short-term buffer, but it cannot fundamentally solve the problem of sulfur constraints. A more feasible long-term solution remains: diversifying sulfur import sources, accelerating the construction of copper mine smelting by-product sulfuric acid projects in Indonesia, and promoting the optimization of sulfur recovery processes.