Price trend of hydrofluoric acid

Price trend of hydrofluoric acid 
According to online industry data, since the end of October, after experiencing prolonged downward pressure and volatility, some products with significant losses in the common refrigerant sector have seen a significant price increase. Analyzing the reasons for this price increase, we summarize three points: 1. Refrigerant factories have been reducing production for an extended period to maintain prices, resulting in low inventory; 2. Tight supply of raw materials and rising prices have limited the industry's supply increase, leading to increased cost pressure; 3. The trading atmosphere is no longer a one-sided buyer's market, and the phenomenon of tight supply has increased. Our analysis suggests that the continuous rise in the prices of basic raw materials such as calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, and sulfuric acid is the trigger that broke the previous weak equilibrium. 
As an upstream product of hydrofluoric acid, the basic raw material for fluorine chemical industry, sulfuric acid has seen a continuous and significant price increase since August. According to statistics from Industry Online, as of November, the monthly average price of sulfuric acid in East China is 270 yuan/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 16.76% and a year-on-year increase of 74.19%. 
At the beginning of the year, due to the impact of COVID-19, the sulfuric acid market experienced sluggish trading, with most acid plants selling at low prices, leading to a temporary inversion in acid price profits. As August and September approached, the downstream phosphate fertilizer market entered its peak season for autumn reserves, with improved exports and downstream demand, significantly boosting the demand for sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market for sulfuric acid mainly relies on imports. The ongoing overseas COVID-19 situation has led to a reduction in sulfur imports, causing raw material shortages and disrupting production at acid enterprises, leading to increased shutdowns and subsequently low supply in the acid market. Overall, the sulfuric acid market is experiencing reduced supply and increased demand. Coupled with the significant decline in the sulfuric acid market earlier, as the peak season approached, industry participants had a strong push for price increases, with various favorable factors supporting the rise in sulfuric acid prices. 
As a raw material for methane chloride, the price of liquid chlorine has also soared, showing a significant increase compared to the same period last year. On the one hand, the price of liquid chlorine is affected by frequent supply fluctuations. During the maintenance period when the main production facilities are shut down, the market supply of liquid chlorine becomes tight, leading to a rapid increase in price. Once the facilities resume production, the price falls again. On the other hand, the main downstream products of liquid chlorine, such as propylene oxide and PVC, have been profitable this year, providing positive support to the liquid chlorine market on the demand side. At the same time, the sustained high price of liquid chlorine will also lead to losses in some downstream chlorine-consuming industries, reducing demand and load, which in turn tends to increase the inventory of major liquid chlorine manufacturers. Therefore, in the long run, the duration of high-priced liquid chlorine will be limited, and the future market will mainly exhibit periodic narrow fluctuations. 
The price of calcium carbide has recently surged to a high level. As of the third week of November, the price in the Wuhai region has risen to 3,350 yuan/ton, significantly exceeding the level of the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, inspections on the transportation of hazardous chemicals have become stricter, resulting in uneven regional arrivals of calcium carbide. Recently, Wuhai and the Ulungur League have been experiencing continuous power restrictions, and the Ningxia region has also been affected by power restrictions and energy conservation and emission reduction inspections. Some enterprises have reduced production due to these restrictions, leading to an overall tight supply in the calcium carbide market. The downstream PVC industry, which relies on calcium carbide, has considerable profits. Coupled with the recent resumption of calcium carbide process by PVC enterprises in some regions, the demand for calcium carbide has increased. The market situation of supply shortages has led to a continuous rise in calcium carbide prices. 
Based on the above predictions, the high prices of basic raw materials are expected to persist, significantly driving up the costs of intermediate and downstream products. Downstream factories, under increasing cost pressures, have a strong willingness to raise prices, and most products have already experienced varying degrees of price increases. Amidst a complex market environment characterized by rising costs, raw material shortages, factories reducing production to maintain prices, and a stable to improving downstream demand, market participants are increasingly optimistic, anticipating a general price increase across different products to varying extents.